A recent peer-reviewed academic study published in Scientific Reports has quantified the carbon emissions and resilience of the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, identifying logistics and manufacturing structure as significant and under-accounted contributors to EV-related emissions.
The research, conducted by university-based researchers and published by Nature Portfolio, introduces a probabilistic simulation model that evaluates emissions from mineral extraction through vehicle delivery. The model captures uncertainty in transport routes, market structure, and supply dependencies and focuses specifically on supply chain logistics rather than vehicle operation or electricity generation.
Results show that average EV supply chain emissions range from approximately 6.4 to 7.0 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity, depending on battery chemistry. These emissions account for up to 25% of pre-operation emissions associated with battery production, indicating that supply chain impacts are materially larger than typically assumed in EV sustainability assessments.
Breakdown of EV supply chain emissions across phases, modes, manufacturers, and markets. (a) Convergence of cumulative average emissions per kWh for 100K Monte-Carlo iterations, showing model stability for High-Ni, LFP, and NMC chemistries. (b) Percentage contribution of each supply chain phase: extraction to processing (EP), processing to battery production (PB), battery production to vehicle production (BV), and vehicle production to market (VM). (c) Share of land versus sea transport emissions per supply chain phase and battery chemistry. (d) Average supply chain emissions per kWh attributable to major vehicle manufacturers, conditional on their production node locations. (e) Average supply chain emissions per kWh attributable to major battery manufacturers, conditional on their production hubs. (f) Average supply chain emissions per kWh by consumer market (China, EU/UK, North America, others).
Mass flow analysis revealed strong geographic concentration across all supply phases, with one region dominating mining, refining, battery production, and vehicle manufacturing. This concentration contributes to low supply chain resilience and high vulnerability to disruption in regions with limited domestic capacity, including North America and Europe.
The study identifies finished vehicle transport as the largest single contributor to supply chain emissions due to vehicle mass per kilowatt-hour and shipping-related emission factors. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in vehicle shipping emissions have a substantially greater impact on total supply chain emissions than equivalent changes in upstream transport modes.
To address these vulnerabilities, the researchers developed an optimisation model for manufacturing hub placement and resource allocation. Simulation results indicate that rebalancing production and sourcing could reduce supply chain emissions by up to 80% while improving resilience by lowering dependency on international flows.
The findings suggest that regionalisation, diversification of production hubs, and optimisation of logistics networks offer significant opportunities to reduce EV-related emissions beyond vehicle design and battery chemistry improvements alone. The study provides a framework for incorporating supply chain emissions and resilience into future EV sustainability analyses and policy decisions.
The authors note that the model does not constitute a full life cycle assessment, but is intended to complement existing approaches by quantifying logistics-driven emissions that are often excluded from conventional evaluations.
“Our findings show that emissions from the EV supply chain are a significant portion of pre-operation impacts and vary with battery chemistry and logistics structure,” said the leads of the study, Tareq Alsaleh and Bilal Farooq. “By using a probabilistic simulation, we can evaluate how supply chain design influences both carbon intensity and system resilience, and identify structural improvements that reduce emissions and vulnerability.”
Reference: Alsaleh, T., Farooq, B. Simulation models for sustainable, resilient, and optimized global electric vehicles supply chain. Sci Rep 16, 181 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-28899-2.
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